The World Bank has indicated that sluggish growth in Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa is dampening the overall economic performance of Sub-Saharan Africa, despite a broader regional trend toward gradual recovery.
According to the April 2025 Africa Pulse report, the region’s economy is expected to grow modestly from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with further acceleration anticipated at 4.3% in 2026 and 2027. However, this growth is being slowed by underperformance in its three largest economies.
When these three countries are excluded, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand more rapidly, with a forecast growth of 4.6% in 2025 and 5.7% in the following two years. Still, the World Bank cautions that this outlook is “subject to heightened risks arising from global policy uncertainty.”
The report notes that the easing of inflationary pressures and stable financial conditions—both globally and domestically—will likely support consumer spending and investment, fueling the region’s economic momentum.
“As inflation cools down and converges to targets, and (global and domestic) financial conditions remain accommodative, it is expected that household consumption and investment will support the region’s growth acceleration,” the report stated.
Nevertheless, government expenditure is expected to contribute minimally, as most countries continue to juggle tight budgets with competing priorities such as debt servicing and infrastructure investments. According to the report, “The contribution of government consumption will remain modest as the public sector continues to balance revenues and expenditures while managing painful trade-offs between servicing the debt burden and investing in social and physical infrastructure.”
Sector-wise, services are projected to be a key driver of growth through 2027, thanks in part to rebounds in ICT, finance, and tourism. Agricultural performance is also expected to improve, following poor outcomes in 2023 and 2024.
“Agriculture is expected to pick up from its lows in 2023–24, thanks to improved climate conditions, infrastructure, and technology,” the World Bank noted.
However, the report warns of considerable risks that could derail growth, including geopolitical tensions, shifting global trade patterns, reduced foreign aid, and extreme weather disruptions.
“Despite the baseline forecasts of growth acceleration in the region during 2025–27, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Sub-Saharan African economies will navigate an uncertain landscape amid greater policy uncertainty, which may lead to changes in the world trade order; ongoing (regional and national) geopolitical shifts that may affect commodity prices, disrupt international relations, and yield further fragmentation; reduced foreign aid budgets worldwide; and challenges posed by extreme weather events.”
Even as the region’s economy shows signs of recovery, per capita income growth remains insufficient to significantly alleviate extreme poverty. The report predicts that by 2025, real income per capita will still be approximately 2% below its most recent peak in 2015.
“The per capita growth acceleration expected in 2025–27, at an annual average rate of 1.8 percent, will contribute to a modest decline in the poverty rate,” it explained.
Poverty, defined at $2.15 per day in 2017 purchasing power parity, is expected to peak at 43.9% in 2025 before dropping slightly to 43.2% by 2027. Limited investment in income-generating sectors, the lingering effects of inflation, and declining donor support are among the obstacles to faster poverty reduction.
